[ABE-L] Seminário DEST/UFMG em 08/11/2024

[Marcos Prates]

Caros,

Na próxima sexta-feira (08 de Novembro, às 13:30h) o ciclo de Seminários do
Departamento de Estatística da UFMG terá a apresentação do Prof. Gareth
Roberts da University of Warwick - Reino Unido.

Gareth Roberts is Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics
and Director of the Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology (CRiSM)
at the University of Warwick. He is an established authority on the
stability of Markov chains, especially applied to Markov chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) theory methodology for a wide range of latent statistical models
with applications in spatial statistics, infectious disease epidemiology
and finance. He has advised 45 PhD students, published more than 200 papers
and has received many awards and prizes.

Title: Football group draw probabilities and corrections

Resumo: This talk will consider the challenge of designing football group
draw mechanisms which have the uniform distribution over all valid draw
assignments, but are also entertaining, practical, and transparent.
Although this problem is trivial in completely symmetric problems, it
becomes challenging when there are draw constraints which are not
exchangeable across each of the competing teams, so that symmetry breaks
down. The talk will explain how to simulate the FIFA Sequential Draw
method, to compute the non-uniformity of its draws by comparison to a
uniform Rejection Sampler. It will then propose two practical methods of
achieving the uniform distribution while still using balls and bowls in a
way which is suitable for a televised draw. The solutions can also be
carried out interactively. The general methodology provided can readily be
transported to different competition draws and is not restricted to
football events.

This is joint work with Jeff Rosenthal.

O seminário será transmitido ao vivo pelo canal do Youtube "Seminários DEST
- UFMG".

https://www.youtube.com/@seminariosdest-ufmg

Att,
Marcos Prates
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